Research on Current Status and Development Trend of Dairy Industry in China (II)

Classification according to the nature of the category, the situation is relatively complex, the competition between different categories is also relatively large, and the subcategories within the category is also very different, the author is difficult to come here one by one. However, the author believes that the classification method of the nature of the category is more scientific and more accurately describes market concentration and the overall pattern. Therefore, the author hereby describes the characteristics of the four major categories:

1. Liquid milk Liquid milk category can be divided into two categories: room temperature milk and low temperature milk. Both categories can also be divided into high-end milk and ordinary milk. If you classify it from the perspective of function, taste, and packaging, that's too much.

In simple terms, the normal temperature milk market is dominated by Yili and Mengniu. The market share of the two brands together exceeds 70%, making them the most concentrated in the market.

The low-temperature milk market is dominated by local brands such as Bright and Sanyuan. Among them, the share of Shanghai Guangming is relatively high, and the rest of the brands have basically exhibited the feature of “land snakes”, and they have no share in the country.

In the high-end milk sector, there are two brands that go hand in hand, one is Mengniu’s “Terransu” and the other is Yili’s “Nutritional Milk”. "Ternsol" dominates the subcategory of high-end normal-temperature milk (which was primarily dominated by full-fat milk), while "nutrition-stimulating milk" dominates the sub-category of low-lactose milk. The two companies followed up with each other and launched the “Golden Code” (Erie launched in the high-end normal-temperature milk area) and “New Yang Road” (Mengniu was launched in the low-lactose room temperature milk area), but it is still difficult to shake up their respective fields so far. The first brand.

2, yogurt yogurt can be roughly divided into three categories: the first category is to meet the nutritional needs of the basic yogurt; the second category is to meet the delicious casual large fruit, cereal yogurt; the third category is a healthy function of yogurt, such as smooth, immune , beauty, children's growth, etc. Among them: the market size of basic yogurt accounts for more than 60%, while the market size of fruit (cereal) yogurt and functional yogurt is relatively low.

However, from the perspective of growth, the growth rate of the latter two is very alarming. In particular, the growth rate of fruit (cereal) yogurt is as high as 40%, which has to arouse the high interest of yogurt companies. Therefore, there are also corresponding leading brands in these three categories.

On the whole, the yogurt market is still difficult to determine who is the absolute leader in this market. Mengniu, Yili, Guangming and Danone are all very strong. Just from the sales point of view, the Mengniu yogurt share slightly highlights, followed by Yili, then Bright and Danone. However, once the classification of the items, the situation is very different, the four brands in the different categories show their ability, simply can not determine who is the leader. This point also shows that the yoghurt market is an emerging category of the dairy industry. The current market concentration is not too high, and future competition will further intensify.

3, milk powder milk category, can be divided into two categories of infant milk powder and adult milk powder. Among them, adult milk powder can also be divided into common formula and functionally enhanced formula milk powder, and can also be divided into many sub-categories according to different ages and genders. However, the entire milk powder market is dominated by infant milk powder. The market share of adult milk powder is relatively small, and the growth trend is not too good.

Infant milk powder is also divided into high-middle and low-end markets. Unlike the yogurt market, the infant milk powder market has long experienced price wars and industry reshuffles. The current competitive landscape is relatively clear. High-end milk powder is mainly monopolized by foreign brands and has become a highly concentrated market category. Mead Johnson, Wyeth, Dumex, Nestle and Abbott are brands with a relatively large share; middle- and low-grade infant milk powder is mainly occupied by domestic companies such as Yili, Yashili and Shengyuan. . However, many “shanzhai” brands disrupt the market at this price point.

Adult milk powder, because the market capacity is getting smaller and smaller, the brand that is doing this market is also less and less. By the author's observation, the two brands, Yili and Nestle, occupy this market. Among them, Yili has low prices and distributes goods. A wide range of advantages, its sales slightly better.

4. Cheese For the Chinese dairy market, cheese is a relatively unfamiliar category, but it also has to mention the category. Unfamiliar because it has not been widely accepted by Chinese consumers. The reason that has to be mentioned is that once this category is accepted by Chinese consumers, its development prospects are incalculable.

China's cheese market is now in its infancy. The overall market size is around 8,000 tons. The domestic output is only about 2,000 tons, and the rest is imported.

In a limited market size, health care (mainly Baijifu brand) takes a leading position, accounting for more than 60% of the entire category, followed by bright, Yili, Kraft, Sanyuan, Shengyuan and other brands. Among them: Bright Cheese is a brand that can not be underestimated. In this small category, its development speed is also very fast. In some cities, even its sales are approaching or catching up with health care, becoming the brand with the second highest sales volume of this category.

Third, the status of sales channels and changes Traditional sales channels, usually divided into wholesale channels and retail channels. However, in recent years, the birth of some emerging channels has infused more abundant connotations into the definition of “sales channels”. However, the author here mainly talks about the various performances of dairy products in the retail industry, and the status of other channels will be passed.

1. The retail industry Dairy industry belongs to fast-moving consumer goods. The sales channels must rely on retail channels, namely convenience stores, supermarket chains, and hypermarkets.

Liquid milk, yogurt and cheese rely on supermarket chains and convenience stores (including milk kiosks and grocery stores), and liquid milk is more commonly used for convenience stores. Because yogurt and cheese must rely on the support of cold chain, they can only be sold in retail stores with cold chains, and ordinary convenience stores basically do not distribute goods (of course, informal companies also have informal distribution).

The category that is fundamentally different from their three major categories is milk powder. Currently, it is increasingly concentrated in hypermarkets and large chain supermarkets. Basically, there are few sales of milk powder in convenience stores, and even the sales of milk powder in some supermarket chains have gradually declined. The shelf space in supermarkets is also shrinking. This shows that milk powder increasingly loses the characteristics of fast-moving consumer goods, and presents the "wine", "high-end liquor" and "skin care products" characteristics, from the channel driven completely to consumer-driven.

However, the development of two channels for infant formula milk powder is also worthy of attention, and that is what we refer to as the emerging channels, namely: one is a store for baby products and one is online sales. Although the current absolute turnover of these two channels is not very large, the growth rate is alarmingly high. In particular, the growth rate of online sales is basically increasing at a rate of doubling every year.

2. From the perspective of the overall trend of the dairy industry, the city level has seen good development in the primary, secondary and tertiary markets and the rural market. It can be said that dairy products are being accepted by the people of the country. However, different levels of the market also showed different trends.

First-tier cities (such as: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu) have relatively saturated channel penetration. Taking room temperature milk as an example, its category penetration rate has exceeded 90%, basically showing the point of “ubiquitous”. This is the biggest difference between second and third-tier cities. In addition, first-tier cities are also fertile ground for high-end products. No matter high-end milk, high-end milk powder, or high-end yogurt and cheese, they all take root here and thrive.

Second-tier cities (such as: Wuhan, Fuzhou, Shenzhen, and Qingdao) have demonstrated their position as "positions." With their large market capacity and relatively strong customer purchasing power, they have become the core markets for the dairy products market. Compared with first-tier cities, dairy products still have room for growth in second-tier cities. In particular, the development of national supermarket chains in second-tier cities and the penetration of international hypermarkets into second-tier cities have made this space even more appreciable.

Third-tier cities [refers to the developed regions, county-level cities (such as Shunde City, Guangdong Province) and pre-developed regions and county-level cities (such as Inner Mongolia, Wuhai City, Erlian City, etc.)] are relatively complicated. This is because not only is its development unbalanced, the number is also huge, and the division is also very troublesome. We do marketing from EMKT. Com. In CN, the division of third-tier cities is basically not divided according to the administrative level, but according to its scale and degree of development. Therefore, prefecture-level cities in underdeveloped regions are often divided into third-tier cities. From the point of view of channel development, the third-tier cities are relatively simple, mainly consisting of supermarket chains and convenience stores. Dairy products have great room for growth in any third-tier cities. It is precisely because of the large number of third-tier cities and the “urban-rural linkage” function of the carriers that the dairy giants have defined the third-line market as the “future main battlefield”. Moreover, from the point of view of the penetration rate of dairy products and the purchasing power of consumers, it is true that third-tier cities cannot be ignored. It is only a matter of time before they become the “main battlefield”.

The rural market is very well defined. It is our vast rural or pastoral area. The channels of the rural market are still in a primitive state. Even though the rural market in developed regions is only based on convenience stores, there is no way for other businesses to have any development. For dairy products, the rural market is a market that loves and hates. The reason for love is the size of a large consumer group. The reason for hate is the backwardness of consumer consciousness and the limited purchasing power. At present, dairy products sold in the rural market are mainly based on powdered milk, supplemented by normal-temperature milk, and the brand is also quite confusing. It is also a cottage brand and a fake brand name.

3, channel marketing talk about the status quo, have to talk about channel promotions. Because, the current retail channel is not only a place to put goods, but more is a place to compete for consumers. Therefore, channel promotion has become one of the important channel strategies.

For the dairy industry, channel promotion still focuses on consumer-oriented promotions in the modernization channel. Promotions for distributors and distributors are not analyzed here.

Dairy industry channel promotion has obvious seasonal characteristics, followed by its busy season. Moreover, the promotional activities in the light season also show different characteristics.

During the peak sales season, in addition to infant formula, almost all categories will preferentially use “special” promotion methods, especially liquid milk and yoghurt, and “special price” will almost become their home-cooked meal. However, in contrast, high-end products, such as high-end milk, cheese and other products, have a relatively low frequency of “specials” and are more willing to adopt the “bundle” and “gift-giving” methods. What's more worth mentioning is that high-end products, especially high-end milk, are basically out of the conventional display area, with piles as the main display method, and often appear as a “purchasing guide promotion” promotion. So how does a relatively special infant formula promote? At present, the most common promotional activities are "gift gifts" and "member sales", and if necessary, there will be some forms of "distribution of knowledge handbooks" and "purchasing guides."

In the off-season, channel promotion will generally converge. In contrast, liquid milk and yoghurt promotions will continue, and promotions in other categories will experience pauses or weak momentum. In the off-season promotion, although the “special price” and “bundling” are adopted as the main forms of promotion, the biggest difference from the peak season is that “purchasing guides” are significantly reduced. Although individual brands are doing, they are only concentrated in special venues such as hypermarkets.

According to the author's observation, regardless of the season promotion, or the off-season promotion, the major brands seem to be “being dead ends”, like the early Mengniu milk “taste the natural journey”, Yili milk “antenna baby” and so on through the channels unforgettable Themed promotions are largely invisible.